Too many new hosts skip straight to design ideas or listing details without answering the most important question first: How much can I make on Airbnb? And a lot of people get it wrong. They underestimate expenses, overlook seasonality, ignore market shifts, or rely on outdated Airbnb revenue calculators that don't reflect real demand.
The result? Missed income and investments that never really pay off.
This guide will show you how to estimate Airbnb revenue the right way, by using real Airbnb data, smart tools, and strategies that actually reflect what's happening in your market. We'll break down what exactly drives Airbnb earnings, walk through how to forecast returns accurately and effectively, and give you the best tools to help.
How to estimate Airbnb revenue: 5 key steps
While you don't need a finance degree to accurately estimate Airbnb revenue, you do need to look at the right data. The most successful managers take a data-backed approach that factors in location, pricing, occupancy, and expenses.
You can definitely piece this together manually, but a tool like SummerOS streamlines the entire process into one platform. On SummerOS, you can forecast earnings, benchmark your performance, and track property health in real time.
Let's walk through the five steps that get you the number you need to see.
1. Understand the key factors that impact your revenue
To answer the question "how much can I make on Airbnb?," you first need to look at a few core factors.
The property's location and local market demand make the biggest difference. High-traffic vacation spots like Miami Beach or Scottsdale typically have higher occupancy and stronger daily rates, but they're also more competitive. Compare that to a more niche market like Asheville, NC, which may have lower occupancy but less saturation.
For example, here's what you could earn in each market based on average daily rate (ADR) and average occupancy (all information from SummerOS):
- A property in Miami Beach: ADR $250, 75% occupancy = ~$5,625/month
- A luxury home in Scottsdale: ADR $400, 65% occupancy = ~$7,800/month
- A mountain cabin in Asheville: ADR $175, 60% occupancy = ~$3,150/month
But even within the same city, revenue potential can shift dramatically from one neighborhood to the next. Take a look at these two properties in Chicago that are just a few miles apart:
- A 6 bed/4 bath in Hermosa: ADR: $857, 53% occupancy = ~$13,635/month
- A 5 bed/6 bath in the Gold Coast: ADR: $3,956, 25% occupancy = ~$29,670/month
Property type and amenities also matter. Luxury homes and properties with pools or hot tubs tend to command higher nightly rates. Other factors that can give you a competitive edge are pet-friendly listings, high-speed WiFi, and well-designed interiors.
Seasonality and occupancy rates can dramatically impact your monthly earnings, as well. In some markets, peak-season revenue can be two to three times higher than off-season bookings.
Take South Lake Tahoe as an example. The average occupancy rate across the year sits around 50%, but the highs and lows are significant. In July, properties in the 90th percentile brought in nearly $21,000 in gross revenue, compared to just $6,900 in the worst performing month of April.
This kind of seasonal swing isn't uncommon in vacation markets, and it's why your Airbnb earnings forecast should factor in monthly demand, not just annual averages.
But, to make the most of those high-earning months (and stay competitive during slower ones), your pricing strategy needs to keep up.
Fixed rates leave money on the table. The Day Optimizer tool in SummerOS helps you find the right nightly rate in real time based on demand, seasonality, and what your local competitors are charging. This equates to more bookings and more revenue year-round.
2. Research your market data
As you can already tell from the first step, market research is extremely important. You can't set realistic expectations without knowing how your market performs. Airbnb data platforms like SummerOS give you access to real-time average daily rates, occupancy trends, and seasonality insights, down to the submarket level.
Track what listings in an area earn each month, watch for high-demand events (like festivals or sporting weekends), and take time to stay on top of local STR regulations that could impact your earning potential.
This is especially important because even the most attractive property can underperform in a market with restrictive regulations or higher taxes. Solid market research helps you avoid those pitfalls. With the right tools, you can account for "hidden" fees, and build a more accurate picture of what your property could actually earn.
3. Calculate your average daily rate (ADR)
Your average daily rate, or ADR for short, is the average amount you'll earn per night booked. This is one of the most important factors in calculating potential revenue; it's also really easy to get to this figure. To calculate it:
ADR = Total Revenue ÷ Number of Booked Nights
But what can you actually do with the ADR? Start by researching competitors on Airbnb or using a tool like SummerOS to see what similar properties are charging. Note that if you plan to offer a luxury stay or premium amenities, you may be able to set your ADR higher than average.
4. Estimate your monthly revenue
Once you have your ADR and estimated occupancy rate, you can use this formula to calculate monthly revenue:
Monthly Revenue = ADR × Occupancy Rate × 30 days
So, if your ADR is $150 and your occupancy rate is 70%, you can expect about $3,150 per month.
Let's use a real-life example, and circle back to the property in Miami Beach from the first step. With an ADR of $250 and a 75% occupancy rate, you can get an estimate of its monthly revenue: $250 x .75 x 30 = $5,625
This number gives you a baseline Airbnb earnings forecast, and shows how even a $25 increase in nightly rate or a few extra booked nights each month can add hundreds, or even thousands, to your bottom line.
5. Factor in your expenses
But don't just stop at revenue, because profitability depends on knowing your costs upfront. Do your research, and make sure to include:
- Estimated cleaning and maintenance costs
- Airbnb host fees (usually around 3%)
- Utilities, like internet and streaming services
- What you'll spend on supplies and restocking
- Local taxes or STR permit fees
Use a platform like Topkey to model out these costs against your projected revenue. Update your spreadsheet regularly (even after your initial investment). Comparing estimates to actual operating expenses helps you refine future projections and make better decisions when it comes to pricing, upgrades, or expanding your portfolio.
The best Airbnb revenue calculators to check out
By now, you know that accurate forecasting depends on more than just instincts. The right tool can help you estimate Airbnb revenue with confidence, turning all metrics like ADR, occupancy rates, and expense assumptions into a clear picture of potential earnings.
Here are four platforms that make it easier to go from rough projections to actual revenue breakdowns.
1. SummerOS: Best for high-accuracy, institutional-quality Airbnb data
SummerOS goes far beyond a basic Airbnb revenue calculator. It's a full asset management platform built for short-term rental professionals.
The platform helps you model projected earnings with real data, analyze market conditions down to specific zip codes or neighborhoods, and understand how your listing stacks up against the competition.
It's a software built for operators who need clarity, especially when evaluating new deals or managing a growing portfolio.
2. GoSummer Airbnb Estimator: Best free tool
Looking for a quick snapshot of what a property might earn on Airbnb? You can do it for free with GoSummer's Airbnb Estimator, an easy-to-use tool that gives you a ballpark monthly revenue estimate based on market-level data.
It's great for early-stage property research or quick comparisons between cities. Simply enter the address you're considering, and the estimator will generate a ballpark monthly revenue that's a fantastic data-backed starting point before diving deeper.
3. Topkey: Best for tracking actual financial expenses
Topkey doesn't help you calculate potential revenue, but it's a powerful finance software purpose-built for short-term rental operators to pinpoint their actual expenses and revenue.
It brings your operating expenses, revenue, and cash flow into one clean dashboard, giving you full visibility into your portfolio’s financial health.
From tracking real-time P&L to forecasting cash flow, Topkey helps you stay on top of the numbers that matter.
How to get an accurate Airbnb revenue estimate
To get short-term rental profitability right, you need to understand your market, factor in seasonality and expenses, and work with numbers that accurately reflect what's really happening.
Platforms like SummerOS make that process seamless. With SummerOS, you get everything you need to make smarter, more profitable investment decisions, from forecasting revenue and tracking comps to modeling expenses and monitoring performance.
If you're serious about maximizing returns, and avoiding any unwanted surprises, start with SummerOS today.
